PICA Assault Weapons Ban Litigation 6th Update
On Friday, February 21st, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) will again conference on the Maryland and Rhode Island “Assault Weapons" Ban and Standard Capacity Magazine ban cases (Snope and Ocean State Tactical.) These cases have been distributed for conference and re-listed several times this year, which is neither unusual nor cause for concern. There are four possible outcomes Friday, each of which will affect the process and timing for the Illinois cases, which we won in the District court.
Best Case
The Court could strike these bans down in a per curiam decision out of the conference. This is a decision by the entire court issued in the name of the court and not of the individual Justices. Most are unanimous, and they dispose of cases that don’t need oral arguments or further briefing quickly. A per curiam opinion could be issued Friday or the following Monday.
Outcome: Awesome! Depending on how the opinion is written, the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals (CA7) would likely be compelled to dismiss the State’s appeal of our victory in the District court, and we are back in a January 2023 (pre-ban) world with respect to buying and selling banned items.
Likelihood: Low, but possible; especially the Snope case as it has been fully briefed and previously vacated and remanded to the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals to “Do Over, and Read the Bruen Decision this time.”
Second Best Case
SCOTUS could grant certiorari in these cases, and agree to hear them this term. The conventional wisdom among SCOTUS watchers is that we are too late into the court’s 2024-2025 term to jam another case in.
Considering that the cases are fully briefed and familiar to the Justices, though, this is possible.
Outcome: The State’s appeal of our win would probably be put on hold pending a decision from SCOTUS in June/July of this year. Both cases should be winnable in SCOTUS, so this, too, would be awesome though through delayed gratification for a few months. As above and depending on how the opinion is written, a win in these cases should be the end of PICA (IL AWB).
Likelihood: Low-Medium. The Court has a semi-full plate of cases (64) for the term as compared to previous terms (80), so there is room for more.
Third Best Cases
SCOTUS could do nothing and re-list for conference again, or they can grand cert for the next term. The Court calendar has conference dates the first and last Friday of March and April, and one for in May. Now we are getting very late in the game for this term, so expectations will increase that the cases get pushed to the October 2025-June 2026 term.
Outcome: Frustration but not despair. Any opinion striking these bans down would be published June/July of 2026.
Our litigation vs the State in CA7 would probably proceed this Spring, with orals in May 2025, a decision by late July 2025. If we win, we win. If we lose, we seek cert at the SCOTUS for the 2025-2026 term.
Likelihood: Medium-high.
The Worst Case
SCOTUS denies cert in these cases, letting the Appeals Courts’ rulings against gun rights stand. This would be an owie. It is possible that SCOTUS wants our case rather than these, since ours has a very beefy record.
Outcome: We would proceed with our litigation, win or lose this summer in CA7, and if we lose, seek cert from SCOTUS for the next term. If we win in the 7th Circuit, expect relief by early Fall 2025. They may, of course, stay that opinion pending the State’s appeal, if any, to SCOTUS. If we win at SCOTUS, expect relief June/July 2026.
Likelihood: Low
Stay Informed
Watch this blog for updates as we get them. We will communicate any changes as quickly as possible.
Thank You for Your Support
The Illinois Gun Dealers, Wholesalers, and Manufacturers, alongside concerned citizens from Illinois and elsewhere have been extraordinarily generous in their support of this litigation. This is a must-win, and litigating through CA7 and on to SCOTUS is seriously expensive.
How can you help us continue this fight?
Please support our efforts through FFL-IL if you are able to at the donation links below. Thank you!
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